Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80a0…5099 other 252 markets active 7h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$41
sports 23% −$22
economics 7% −$8
politics 7% −$7
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage141d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $749 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $748 −$2 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $667 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $296 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $168 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $391 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $291 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $794 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $826 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $306 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $626 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $428 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $319 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $131 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $159 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $399 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $336 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 7h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 8h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 9h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 11h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 12h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 13h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 22h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 23h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 25h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 26h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 32h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 34h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $57 38h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 40h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 43h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $57 44h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 47h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1456 history records