Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80a2…838b crypto 655 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$13,383 (+50%) realized +$3,468 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%314W / 561L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day534.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,417
7 days+$3,468
14 days+$3,468
30 days+$3,468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$12,921
sports 0% $0
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 875 -22.6% -30.0% 36% 34% +0.6%
≤30d 875 -22.6% -30.0% 36% 34% +0.6%
≤90d 875 -22.6% -30.0% 36% 34% +0.6%
all 875 -22.6% -30.0% 36% 34% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover534.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.0% 34% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 30% -9.1%
15% -42.8% 27% -17.8%
20% -48.4% 21% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -93% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$24 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$3,468
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses314 / 561
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)875 / 655
History coverage6d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day534.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 875 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Up 49¢ 92¢ $25 $46 +$22 (+89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 60¢ 69¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $114 $0 −$114 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $215 $0 −$215 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $13 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $13 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $13 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $13 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $21 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $27 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $22 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $8 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.34 · official $49.34 (match) · 3500 history records