Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
80 0x80a8…8d88 weather 318 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$85 (+9%) realized +$92 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%150W / 161L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$1
14 days+$69
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% +$21
crypto 33% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 49% -9.7%
≤30d 311 +3.1% -6.7% 48% 48% -3.7%
≤90d 311 +3.1% -6.7% 48% 48% -3.7%
all 311 +3.1% -6.7% 48% 48% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 48% -3.7%
10% -15.6% 48% -12.9%
15% -23.8% 48% -21.3%
20% -31.2% 46% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses150 / 161
Open positions7
Markets (closed)311 / 318
History coverage27d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? No 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 41¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 44¢ 21¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +127%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 41¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $0 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 5¢ $0 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL No 4¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL No 12¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL No 71¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 32¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.71 · official $10.71 (match) · 724 history records