Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x80ab…fc71
sports · 185 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$46 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$50 · open −$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$325
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses81 / 73
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions31
Markets (closed)154 / 185
History coverage92d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 31 History 154 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$126
14 days+$127
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 65¢ 97¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 49¢ 34¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 46¢ 26¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 75¢ 99¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+32%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mayweather 66¢ 62¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $20 +$17 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Philip Henning Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $6 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +27%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $10 +$3 +25%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand Jun 02 $10 +$5 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev Jun 02 $10 +$6 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 02 $20 −$3 -14%
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys Jun 02 $10 +$8 +79%
Kosice: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Martin Krumich Jun 02 $20 +$11 +56%
Roland Garros WTA: Camila Osorio vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 02 $20 +$15 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 02 $20 +$18 +90%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex Jun 02 $20 +$19 +95%
Buducnost vs. BC Dubai May 25 $4 −$4 -99%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire May 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 25 $20 +$9 +44%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $20 +$11 +52%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $20 +$17 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $20 +$18 +90%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 21 $10 +$6 +55%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 21 $10 +$9 +93%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% +$22
crypto 5% −$8
world 3% +$5
other 2% $0
tech 2% +$9
economics 1% −$2
politics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $4 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 58¢ $10 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $10 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $10 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $10 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $10 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $10 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $10 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 46¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 49¢ $20 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 49¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $10 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $8 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 45¢ $10 8d
Nanterre vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 57¢ $10 8d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 57¢ $10 8d
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Arthur Fery 58¢ $10 8d
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Philip Henning BUY Harold Mayot 54¢ $10 8d
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva BUY Sara Sorribes Tormo 49¢ $10 8d
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Elina Avanesyan 53¢ $10 8d
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 68¢ $3 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +72.3% +55.9% 100% 73% +61.1%
≤30d 62 +28.8% +16.6% 60% 53% +7.1%
≤90d 148 +5.8% -4.3% 55% 50% -6.1%
all 154 +1.7% -8.0% 53% 48% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 48% -9.0%
10% -16.8% 47% -17.7%
15% -24.8% 41% -25.7%
20% -32.2% 36% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.70 · official $324.70 (match) · 283 history records