Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80ac…e8be sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-15%) realized −$29 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% $0
other 13% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -16.7% -24.7% 46% 46% -32.4%
≤30d 13 -16.7% -24.7% 46% 46% -32.4%
≤90d 13 -16.7% -24.7% 46% 46% -32.4%
all 13 -16.7% -24.7% 46% 46% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 46% -32.4%
10% -31.9% 46% -38.9%
15% -38.5% 31% -44.8%
20% -44.5% 31% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 100¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 96¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +63%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 +$1 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6 +$2 +29%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 $0 -4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$2 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $8 12m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 33¢ $3 58m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $40 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $16 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $2 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 2h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 5h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $3 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $6 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $4 42h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $6 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.18 · official $67.18 (match) · 24 history records