Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80ae…7350 other 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$683 (-22%) realized −$681 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$927
sports 3% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -7.5% -16.3% 41% 41% -37.4%
≤30d 20 -4.2% -13.4% 45% 45% -35.3%
≤90d 20 -4.2% -13.4% 45% 45% -35.3%
all 20 -4.2% -13.4% 45% 45% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 45% -35.3%
10% -21.6% 40% -41.5%
15% -29.2% 25% -47.1%
20% -36.2% 15% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$120 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$681
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $284 −$151 -53%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $210 +$72 +34%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $106 −$37 -35%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $107 −$6 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $126 +$81 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $900 −$775 -86%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $181 −$10 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 +$41 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$19 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 +$34 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$40 +38%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $81 −$8 -10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $107 −$25 -23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $105 +$51 +49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $53 +$54 +102%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $105 +$30 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $106 −$92 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $40 41h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $178 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $93 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $69 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $100 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $105 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $210 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $106 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $107 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $126 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $125 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $900 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $172 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $181 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $105 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $105 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $73 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $73 4d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $73 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $74 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $81 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $82 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $107 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $105 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $105 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $105 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $53 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $105 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.75 (match) · 47 history records