Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
80 0x80b2…8561 crypto 555 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$376 (+7%) realized +$507 · open −$131
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate74%412W / 142L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$211
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$239
sports 28% +$566
other 14% −$17
world 10% −$133
tech 2% +$13
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -6.4% -15.3% 52% 48% -28.7%
≤30d 134 +1.4% -8.2% 53% 52% -26.7%
≤90d 487 -0.1% -9.6% 74% 28% -1.6%
all 554 +0.2% -9.4% 74% 30% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 30% -3.5%
10% -18.0% 23% -12.7%
15% -26.0% 20% -21.2%
20% -33.2% 17% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized+$507
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses412 / 142
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)554 / 555
History coverage94d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 554 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes $438 $307 −$131 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +124%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ne Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 −$1 -99%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +67%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $13 +$12 +87%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $27 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $48 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $49 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $39 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $36 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $20 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $25 32h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $25 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $15 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $59 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $15 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $25 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $5 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $5 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 98¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $10 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $10 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $10 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $10 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $71 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $81 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $27 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $2 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 65¢ $1 4d
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ne SELL Yes 50¢ $2 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 53¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $5 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.18 · official $307.18 (match) · 1304 history records