Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80b8…e077 sports 1118 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$209 (+3%) realized +$207 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%552W / 563L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$125
14 days+$139
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$38
other 30% +$154
crypto 3% −$33
world 1% −$21
politics 1% −$30
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$3
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -24.5% -31.7% 36% 22% +6.4%
≤30d 377 -12.3% -20.7% 40% 32% -3.5%
≤90d 1115 -8.3% -17.0% 50% 40% -6.7%
all 1115 -8.3% -17.0% 50% 40% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 40% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 30% -15.7%
15% -32.2% 21% -23.8%
20% -38.9% 13% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$207
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses552 / 563
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1115 / 1118
History coverage64d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes $5 $8 +$2 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 −$9 -70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$4 -14%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $2 +$1 +66%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $62 +$34 +56%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$24 -78%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -91%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $8 −$6 -69%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $3 $0 +6%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +9%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Daniella Britton Jun 23 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Noma Noha Akugue vs Lisa Pigato Jun 23 $4 $0 -3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +8%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -49%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1 $0 +32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$14 +73%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$12 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $3 +$5 +165%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $8 +$2 +27%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $26 −$2 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -55%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $3 $0 -11%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 $0 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $4 −$2 -53%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 $0 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -38%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $8 $0 -3%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $5 $0 -7%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $9 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $8 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $4 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 8h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL AM Gaming 65¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 38¢ $2 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $5 12h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 91¢ $97 18h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes $7 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $1 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $52 19h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 19h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 19h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse SELL Stefanos Tsitsipas $1 31h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 61¢ $6 31h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 39¢ $2 31h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund SELL Sara Bejlek 56¢ $1 34h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund SELL Laura Siegemund 43¢ $2 34h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 41¢ $2 34h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 40¢ $2 34h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 62¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.50 · official $31.50 (match) · 3070 history records