Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x80b8…44c1 crypto 812 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,959 (+10%) realized +$10,959 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate96%777W / 35L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day38.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$797
7 days+$1,153
14 days+$2,297
30 days+$3,902
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9,509
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 +1.2% -8.5% 95% 17% -4.7%
≤30d 454 +6.2% -3.9% 96% 22% -2.0%
≤90d 812 +8.7% -1.7% 96% 25% -1.8%
all 812 +8.7% -1.7% 96% 25% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 25% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 17% -11.2%
15% -19.7% 13% -19.8%
20% -27.5% 6% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$148 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,959
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses777 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)812 / 812
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$137
Trades / day38.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 812 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $97 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $97 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $825 +$306 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $88 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $47 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $96 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $97 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $96 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $260 +$61 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $955 +$495 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $204 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $107 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $113 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $113 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $170 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $97 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $77 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $85 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $97 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $97 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $48 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $44 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $209 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $88 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $96 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records