Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x80b9…cedc sports 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,991 (-5%) realized −$3,991 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%104W / 74L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$312est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$3
14 days−$310
30 days−$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$20
other 33% +$1,152
crypto 14% −$5,265
world 4% +$9
tech 1% −$250
politics 1% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.0% -11.3% 67% 67% -10.7%
≤30d 7 -58.0% -62.0% 29% 29% -65.5%
≤90d 138 -2.0% -11.3% 62% 50% -8.5%
all 178 -5.5% -14.5% 58% 46% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 46% -14.4%
10% -22.7% 31% -22.6%
15% -30.2% 21% -30.1%
20% -37.0% 7% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$195 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,991
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses104 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$312
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage234d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $200 −$198 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 19 $31 −$31 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $191 +$42 +22%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $180 +$14 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $99 +$54 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $99 +$27 +27%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $201 −$199 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $99 −$98 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) May 12 $838 −$830 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner May 12 $503 −$289 -57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $978 +$129 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $704 +$159 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner May 11 $603 −$402 -67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 11 $403 +$121 +30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $151 −$20 -13%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $81 +$131 +163%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $860 +$218 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $51 −$18 -35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z - Map 1 Winner May 10 $190 +$19 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $501 +$199 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs The Huns Esports - Map 1 Winner May 10 $490 +$97 +20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $235 −$46 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $621 −$7 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $251 +$93 +37%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte - Map 2 Winner May 09 $151 +$42 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 - Map 2 Winner May 09 $300 +$33 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 - Map 1 Winner May 09 $302 +$73 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic - Map 2 Winner May 09 $202 +$76 +38%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $505 +$52 +10%
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? May 04 $318 +$137 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $860 +$198 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 02 $803 +$20 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $802 +$53 +7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 02 $581 +$211 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $518 +$105 +20%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $199 −$46 -23%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $928 +$111 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 01 $100 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou May 01 $612 +$188 +31%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $152 +$16 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $628 +$107 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $138 −$48 -35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 29 $1,214 +$28 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $147 7m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 68¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $73 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $75 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 76¢ $200 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $101 9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 20d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY MOUZ 72¢ $31 31d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 96¢ $234 33d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 78¢ $191 33d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo SELL Natus Vincere 90¢ $194 33d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo BUY Natus Vincere 83¢ $180 33d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Spirit 96¢ $153 34d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Spirit 61¢ $99 34d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Spirit 90¢ $126 34d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 70¢ $99 34d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FUT Esports 71¢ $201 38d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $99 38d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 68¢ $215 39d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 35¢ $214 39d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 68¢ $623 39d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 79¢ $503 39d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL FURIA 92¢ $1,106 39d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY FURIA 81¢ $978 39d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $71 39d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $863 39d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $200 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 679 history records