Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:44:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80bb…b8aa weather 901 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%825W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$19
14 days+$30
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$6
politics 1% −$10
other 0% $0
crypto 0% −$15
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 645 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 875 -1.1% -10.5% 94% 3% -9.5%
all 885 -1.9% -11.2% 93% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$1,407
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses825 / 60
Open positions14
Markets (closed)885 / 901
History coverage114d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 885 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 17? Jun 18 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C or higher on June Jun 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 17? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 77°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 75°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 23°C or below on June 1 Jun 17 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 17m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $15 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $15 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $150 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $16 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $25 14h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 14h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,407.02 · official $1,406.62 (match) · 2466 history records