Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80c0…7e7f world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$13
other 15% −$7
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% −$1
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 16 -1.2% -10.6% 25% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 16 -1.2% -10.6% 25% 0% -11.2%
all 39 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -11.7%
10% -20.7% 0% -20.1%
15% -28.3% 0% -27.8%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage475d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $41 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $24 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $40 −$1 -2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $53 −$2 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $91 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $74 −$11 -14%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $89 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31? Dec 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $2 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 24 $7 $0 -6%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 11 $7 $0 -3%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $7 $0 -1%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 19 $3 $0 -1%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $15 −$7 -44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump cut Ukraine off from Starlink? Mar 17 $16 $0 +1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $8 $0 -6%
Will Brad Garlinghouse attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? Mar 11 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 42m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $35 11h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 13h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 13h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $24 16h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $10 20h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $14 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $21 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $19 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $35 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $25 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $10 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $34 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records