Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
80 0x80c0…9519 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7,542 (-37%) realized −$7,712 · open +$170
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$973per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$3,730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,868
7 days−$6,735
14 days−$6,735
30 days−$7,235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$4,873
sports 29% −$3,485
crypto 3% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.9% -14.8% 8% 8% -63.8%
≤30d 13 -13.1% -21.4% 8% 8% -65.3%
≤90d 13 -13.1% -21.4% 8% 8% -65.3%
all 15 -15.1% -23.2% 13% 7% -58.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 7% -58.4%
10% -30.5% 7% -62.4%
15% -37.2% 7% -66.0%
20% -43.4% 7% -69.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$397 vs −$756 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$3,730
Realized−$7,712
Unrealized+$170
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage165d
Avg bet$973
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2,000 $2,158 +$158 (+8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $1,500 $1,513 +$13 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,027 −$95 -9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,010 −$753 -74%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $512 −$439 -86%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $513 −$381 -74%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,050 −$244 -12%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2,273 −$2,250 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $609 −$396 -65%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $195 −$185 -95%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $764 −$525 -69%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $103 +$733 +714%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2,047 −$2,000 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $520 −$500 -96%
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 31 $3,144 −$1,853 -59%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $1,838 +$60 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 9m
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 10m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 10m
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,519 18m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $932 31m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $101 38m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $156 39m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes $73 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $132 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 15h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,807 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $762 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,511 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $175 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $13 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $25 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $195 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $512 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $97 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,729.70 · official $3,729.70 (match) · 72 history records