trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -5.9% | -14.8% | 8% | 8% | -63.8% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -13.1% | -21.4% | 8% | 8% | -65.3% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -13.1% | -21.4% | 8% | 8% | -65.3% |
| all | 15 | -15.1% | -23.2% | 13% | 7% | -58.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.2% | 7% | -58.4% |
| 10% | -30.5% | 7% | -62.4% |
| 15% | -37.2% | 7% | -66.0% |
| 20% | -43.4% | 7% | -69.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 18¢ | $2,000 | $2,158 | +$158 (+8%) |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 58¢ | 58¢ | $1,500 | $1,513 | +$13 (+1%) |
| Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? | Yes | 13¢ | 14¢ | $15 | $16 | +$1 (+4%) |
| Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? | Yes | 15¢ | 14¢ | $15 | $14 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $15 | $14 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $15 | $14 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $1,027 | −$95 | -9% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $1,010 | −$753 | -74% |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $206 | −$200 | -97% |
| Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $512 | −$439 | -86% |
| Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $513 | −$381 | -74% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $2,050 | −$244 | -12% |
| Spain leading at halftime? | Jun 15 | $2,273 | −$2,250 | -99% |
| Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $609 | −$396 | -65% |
| Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? | Jun 15 | $195 | −$185 | -95% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $764 | −$525 | -69% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $103 | +$733 | +714% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $2,047 | −$2,000 | -98% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $520 | −$500 | -96% |
| Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jan 31 | $3,144 | −$1,853 | -59% |
| AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan | Jan 24 | $1,838 | +$60 | +3% |