trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 6¢ | 6¢ | $9,819 | $10,045 | +$226 (+2%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? | No | 8¢ | 0¢ | $4,387 | $0 | −$4,387 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | $130 | $0 | −$130 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? | Jun 03 | $19,458 | −$475 | -2% |
| Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? | Jun 02 | $652 | +$90 | +14% |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $3,740 | −$253 | -7% |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $252 | +$38 | +15% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? | May 26 | $146 | −$131 | -90% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | May 26 | $66 | −$58 | -88% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? | May 26 | $4 | −$4 | -99% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 13 | $70 | −$30 | -43% |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4? | May 04 | $10 | +$10 | +94% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? | May 03 | $215 | −$108 | -50% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May? | May 03 | $167 | −$8 | -5% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun | May 03 | $58 | +$313 | +538% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET | May 03 | $5 | $0 | +7% |
| Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | Apr 27 | $46,053 | −$45,995 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Apr 25 | $24,221 | +$21,125 | +87% |
| Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? | Apr 22 | $47 | −$44 | -94% |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | Apr 22 | $4,525 | −$2,494 | -55% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Apr 22 | $554 | +$2,040 | +368% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Apr 22 | $4,342 | −$271 | -6% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Apr 22 | $4,339 | +$9,247 | +213% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Apr 20 | $1,446 | +$353 | +24% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | -38.5% | -44.3% | 25% | 25% | -17.5% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +32.4% | +19.8% | 43% | 38% | -25.4% |
| all | 21 | +32.4% | +19.8% | 43% | 38% | -25.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +19.8% | 38% | -25.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +8.3% | 29% | -32.5% |
| 15% | -2.1% | 24% | -39.0% |
| 20% | -11.7% | 24% | -45.0% |