Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80c6…6660 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$123 (-11%) realized −$117 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$105
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 33% -15.7%
≤30d 13 -32.8% -39.2% 15% 15% -20.7%
≤90d 13 -32.8% -39.2% 15% 15% -20.7%
all 20 -19.0% -26.7% 25% 20% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 20% -18.6%
10% -33.7% 20% -26.4%
15% -40.2% 20% -33.5%
20% -46.0% 15% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage211d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies West Indies 18¢ 16¢ $76 $69 −$6 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama Jun 24 $378 −$16 -4%
T20 Series England A vs India A, Women: England A vs India A Jun 24 $9 +$8 +80%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Jun 23 $28 −$20 -73%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $33 −$32 -98%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $36 −$1 -2%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $260 −$9 -4%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Botswana vs Rwanda May 30 $15 $0 -1%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Mali vs Sierra Leone May 30 $30 +$14 +46%
Solana Up or Down - November 28, 12PM ET May 30 $9 −$5 -53%
ODI Series Australia vs India, Women: Australia vs India May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 11AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
ILT20: Gulf Giants vs Sharjah Warriorz (Game 1) May 30 $33 −$33 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Malaysia vs Nepal May 30 $79 −$13 -17%
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa Feb 26 $30 −$25 -86%
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 2) Dec 03 $31 +$47 +152%
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 1) Dec 01 $33 −$7 -21%
Bangladesh T20 Series: Bangladesh vs Ireland (Game 2) Nov 30 $23 −$12 -53%
Pakistan Tri-Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 5) Nov 27 $11 +$6 +50%
Bangladesh T20 Series: Bangladesh vs Ireland (Game 1) Nov 27 $4 $0 +5%
Pakistan Tri-Series: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 5) Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 18¢ $76 11m
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Panama 99¢ $102 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Panama 84¢ $7 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Panama 85¢ $73 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Panama 64¢ $6 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Panama 54¢ $86 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Panama 43¢ $5 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Panama 45¢ $23 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Panama 62¢ $63 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Bahamas 46¢ $19 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Bahamas 49¢ $31 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Bahamas 51¢ $7 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Bahamas 52¢ $15 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Bahamas 58¢ $88 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Bahamas 54¢ $4 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Bahamas 54¢ $12 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Bahamas 54¢ $5 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Bahamas 54¢ $6 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Bahamas 54¢ $5 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Bahamas 45¢ $11 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Bahamas 45¢ $7 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Bahamas 45¢ $4 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Bahamas 45¢ $6 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Bahamas 46¢ $5 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Bahamas 47¢ $27 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Bahamas 49¢ $5 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama SELL Panama 37¢ $12 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Bahamas 60¢ $22 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Bahamas 60¢ $25 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama BUY Panama 50¢ $16 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.30 · official $69.30 (match) · 125 history records