Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x80c7…d9c5
weather · 283 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$5,506 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,376 · open +$150
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,524
Realized+$4,376
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses198 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)282 / 283
History coverage98d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 282 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,820
7 days+$5,803
14 days+$5,215
30 days+$5,205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1,373 $1,524 +$150 (+11%)
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-19? No 58¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 12? No 97¢ 0¢ $2,249 $0 −$2,249 (-100%)
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw? No 74¢ 0¢ $311 $0 −$311 (-100%)
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-13? No 36¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7,466 +$5,812 +78%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$8 +29%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,066 −$31 -2%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $14 +$13 +93%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +67%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $8,207 −$588 -7%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Bucheon FC 1995 win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 +$3 +24%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw? May 12 $314 −$311 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 12? May 12 $239 +$75 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 12? May 12 $2,134 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 12? May 11 $2,253 −$2,249 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 11? May 11 $2,103 +$61 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 11? May 11 $1,025 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 10? May 10 $790 +$73 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 10? May 10 $903 +$74 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 10? May 10 $1,239 +$33 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 10? May 10 $806 +$24 +3%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $919 +$281 +31%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $31 +$19 +62%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $48 +$10 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or higher on May 7? May 07 $1,856 +$92 +5%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $19 +$11 +62%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $582 +$18 +3%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-03-06? May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 6? May 06 $3,657 +$34 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 6? May 06 $230 +$14 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on May 6? May 06 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 5? May 05 $1,657 +$119 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 5? May 05 $2,044 +$42 +2%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-03-06? May 05 $10 +$7 +68%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $14 +$6 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 4? May 04 $2,445 +$142 +6%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $5 +$4 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 4? May 04 $111 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 4? May 04 $484 +$24 +5%
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $69 +$21 +30%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $71 +$35 +49%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $44 +$15 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 2? May 01 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 30? Apr 30 $71 +$17 +24%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $529 +$105 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 28? Apr 28 $1,714 +$84 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1,655 +$52 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on April 26? Apr 26 $888 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 25? Apr 25 $536 +$29 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 76% −$1,060
other 23% +$5,924
sports 1% −$332
world 0% $0
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $11,320 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 15h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $945 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $105 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $99 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +42.6% +29.0% 67% 67% +45.3%
≤30d 9 +15.5% +4.5% 44% 44% +16.9%
≤90d 271 -2.2% -11.5% 70% 23% -5.4%
all 282 -0.8% -10.3% 70% 25% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 25% -5.4%
10% -18.9% 20% -14.5%
15% -26.7% 16% -22.7%
20% -33.9% 13% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,523.67 · official $1,523.67 (match) · 1178 history records