Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
80 0x80cc…bdd8 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$954 (+64%) realized +$1,119 · open −$165
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate85%23W / 4L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$562
7 days+$562
14 days+$737
30 days+$739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$585
other 22% +$232
crypto 1% +$5
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +171.2% +145.3% 83% 83% +129.6%
≤30d 13 +100.1% +81.0% 77% 77% +103.8%
≤90d 21 +66.2% +50.4% 81% 57% +90.1%
all 27 +52.1% +37.7% 85% 44% +88.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.7% 44% +88.5%
10% +24.5% 44% +70.5%
15% +12.5% 41% +54.0%
20% +1.4% 33% +38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +110% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +108% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +86% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$10 · ×4.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.06 per $1 lost it wins $25.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,119
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses23 / 4
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions5
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage172d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 53¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 53¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) FURIA 60¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 14¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 10¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $51 +$54 +106%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $36 +$256 +712%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $102 +$192 +188%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 26 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 26 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 26 $2 +$3 +152%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 26 $5 +$9 +172%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $3 $0 +10%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 21 $182 +$170 +93%
Devils vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5 Apr 17 $100 +$82 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in April 2026? Apr 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 14 $2 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Mar 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Mar 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Mar 10 $3 $0 +6%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? Jan 22 $1 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Jan 22 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 10¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 44¢ $468 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 20¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 28¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 14¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 28¢ $39 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 36¢ $27 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 36¢ $99 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 14¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $51 3h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 4h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 4h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) BUY FURIA 60¢ $51 4h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $102 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 23h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 23h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $26 23h
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 53¢ $203 13d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $10 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 42d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 36¢ $5 42d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 48¢ $5 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 66 history records