Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x80cc…b5a4
crypto · 394 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8,888 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,463 · open −$723
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$713
Realized−$8,463
Unrealized−$723
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses77 / 314
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)391 / 394
History coverage723d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 3 History 391 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$258
14 days−$372
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1,244 $553 −$691 (-56%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 8¢ 6¢ $113 $81 −$33 (-29%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Up 16¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? Down 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? Up 0¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2? Up 10¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $509 $0 −$509 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $99 −$52 -52%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $153 −$63 -41%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $256 −$110 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 05 $177 −$65 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $49 +$41 +83%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $44 −$43 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 27 $183 +$581 +317%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 27 $14 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 24 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 23 $318 −$298 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? May 21 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $5 +$15 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 18? May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 17 $2 +$4 +169%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? May 17 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji May 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $45 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 07 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 07 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% −$3,750
tech 15% −$1,007
other 8% −$2,825
economics 4% −$1,264
politics 1% −$308
world 0% −$32
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 11¢ $23 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 6¢ $19 11h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $32 12h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 8¢ $99 42h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 3¢ $104 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $47 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $90 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $136 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 6d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 11¢ $32 6d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 10¢ $1,505 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $107 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $113 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 5¢ $17 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 5¢ $3 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 13¢ $16 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 5¢ $7 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 5¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -59.0% -62.9% 0% 0% -52.6%
≤30d 29 -38.2% -44.1% 14% 14% -20.2%
≤90d 233 -53.5% -57.9% 10% 10% -46.7%
all 391 -26.3% -33.4% 20% 18% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 18% -24.3%
10% -39.7% 15% -31.5%
15% -45.6% 13% -38.2%
20% -50.9% 12% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $712.65 · official $712.73 (match) · 1789 history records