Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80cd…0558 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$90 (-15%) realized −$88 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$13
14 days−$63
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$10
other 46% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -30.3% -37.0% 26% 26% -12.4%
≤30d 22 -39.8% -45.6% 23% 23% -29.4%
≤90d 22 -39.8% -45.6% 23% 23% -29.4%
all 22 -39.8% -45.6% 23% 23% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.6% 23% -29.4%
10% -50.8% 23% -36.1%
15% -55.5% 23% -42.3%
20% -59.9% 18% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$20 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage20d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$20 -65%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $19 +$86 +442%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$28 +109%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 +$13 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $21 20m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 20m
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $20 25m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $11 27m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H BUY Yes 17¢ $31 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 26h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 45h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $10 45h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $9 46h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $17 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $41 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.05 · official $68.05 (match) · 39 history records