Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80ce…5d30 other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$295 (-18%) realized −$381 · open +$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days−$429
14 days−$300
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$502
crypto 34% −$68
sports 23% +$318
world 1% −$12
weather 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-56.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -50.9% -55.5% 13% 13% -48.9%
≤30d 119 -51.9% -56.5% 13% 13% -32.3%
≤90d 119 -51.9% -56.5% 13% 13% -32.3%
all 119 -51.9% -56.5% 13% 13% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.5% 13% -32.3%
10% -60.6% 11% -38.7%
15% -64.4% 9% -44.7%
20% -67.9% 8% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$10 · ×4.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$381
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 104
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)119 / 127
History coverage17d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 24¢ 50¢ $50 $103 +$53 (+107%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 18¢ 50¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+181%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$46 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$21 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$6 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $64 −$29 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $228 −$223 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $5 +$33 +650%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $98 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $16 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.