Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:51:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80d0…129a world 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%20W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$10
other 24% $0
sports 16% $0
politics 10% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% −$7
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.0% -12.2% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 23 +1.4% -8.3% 35% 9% -8.6%
≤90d 68 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 3% -9.2%
all 83 +0.2% -9.4% 24% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses20 / 63
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage317d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $40 −$2 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $45 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $153 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $81 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $31 +$11 +35%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $64 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $70 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $72 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $10 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $11 +$2 +23%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $1 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $23 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $34 $0 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $60 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $33 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $0 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $32 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $36 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 43¢ $45 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $16 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $16 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $38 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $39 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.41 · official $39.13 (match) · 287 history records