Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
80 0x80d5…7344 other 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$357 (+1%) realized −$963 · open +$1,320
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%26W / 18L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,128per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$15,920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$816
7 days−$930
14 days−$571
30 days−$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$3,873
sports 24% −$3,044
tech 2% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +17.0% +5.9% 59% 55% -13.1%
≤30d 44 +7.3% -3.0% 59% 57% -10.5%
≤90d 44 +7.3% -3.0% 59% 57% -10.5%
all 44 +7.3% -3.0% 59% 57% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 57% -10.5%
10% -12.2% 34% -19.1%
15% -20.7% 27% -26.9%
20% -28.5% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,023) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$487 vs −$735 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$15,920
Realized−$963
Unrealized+$1,320
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses26 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions17
Markets (closed)44 / 61
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1,128
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $3,000 $4,101 +$1,101 (+37%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $2,500 $2,432 −$68 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 67¢ 70¢ $2,000 $2,104 +$104 (+5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $1,000 $1,128 +$128 (+13%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,123 +$123 (+12%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $1,000 $980 −$20 (-2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 73¢ $800 $800 +$0 (+0%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 87¢ 93¢ $500 $532 +$32 (+6%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 88¢ $500 $521 +$21 (+4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $500 $308 −$192 (-38%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 69¢ 100¢ $200 $290 +$90 (+45%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $200 $245 +$45 (+23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Over 57¢ 46¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 +$331 +321%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,020 +$495 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $360 −$350 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2,037 −$2,000 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,014 +$149 +15%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,021 +$566 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1,014 +$149 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,023 +$562 +55%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 +$485 +468%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,014 +$139 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,014 +$123 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $510 +$259 +51%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $816 −$619 -76%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 17 $309 −$309 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $104 −$96 -92%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,016 +$31 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,014 +$123 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,031 +$438 +22%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,021 +$635 +62%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $52 +$211 +409%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $509 +$158 +31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $515 −$430 -84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,552 +$1,354 +53%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,091 −$2,679 -66%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 −$86 -84%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,044 +$527 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,046 −$3,046 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,015 +$190 +19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,064 +$2,267 +74%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,745 +$973 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 +$33 +32%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,016 +$234 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,018 −$77 -8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,019 +$404 +40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5,727 +$1,040 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,038 +$788 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 42¢ $72 2m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $205 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $204 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,015 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $1,013 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,039 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 23¢ $103 5h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $508 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,020 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $308 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1,018 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $1,015 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1,019 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $1,024 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $1,014 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,021 2d
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $103 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1,014 3d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 84¢ $509 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $722 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,023 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 67¢ $2,040 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,027 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $102 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $1,014 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1,014 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $510 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,920.25 · official $15,920.25 (match) · 132 history records