Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x80d8…bc23 crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$158 (-2%) realized −$158 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%34W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$22
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$40
economics 13% +$33
crypto 12% −$294
world 3% −$70
sports 2% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +34.7% +21.8% 74% 63% -7.1%
≤30d 20 +35.0% +22.1% 75% 65% -6.3%
≤90d 36 +13.9% +3.1% 69% 58% -10.2%
all 62 +7.2% -3.0% 55% 45% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 45% -12.2%
10% -12.3% 27% -20.6%
15% -20.7% 21% -28.2%
20% -28.5% 15% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$24 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses34 / 28
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage301d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $63 +$8 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $117 −$55 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $76 +$42 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $68 +$36 +52%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$6 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $136 −$103 -76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$6 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 +$55 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $57 +$16 +29%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 +$8 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$10 +136%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$28 +238%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$9 +307%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$29 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 05 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 03 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 03 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 03 $46 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 03 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 03 $26 +$22 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 03 $52 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 03 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 02 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 02 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 02 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 30 $26 −$25 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $39 +$6 +16%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $129 −$89 -69%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $108 +$19 +17%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $84 +$25 +30%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 23 $4,952 +$52 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 10 $632 −$27 -4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $172 +$30 +18%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first? Oct 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? Oct 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on Septembe Sep 22 $314 −$143 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 20? Sep 20 $24 −$9 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe Sep 20 $79 −$56 -70%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Sep 18 $44 −$20 -47%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $46 +$10 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on September 1? Sep 03 $10 +$3 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $71 0m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $63 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $62 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $117 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $76 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $39 30h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $31 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $33 34h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $36 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $36 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $75 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $74 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $57 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $8 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $6 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records