Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
80 0x80d8…a2d5 sports 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 409d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$245 (+4%) realized +$260 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%73W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$567
7 days+$393
14 days+$419
30 days+$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$36
sports 35% +$390
politics 7% −$17
crypto 3% −$73
world 2% −$117
culture 0% +$2
tech 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +4.3% -5.6% 58% 55% +3.7%
≤30d 106 +4.0% -5.9% 59% 55% +2.7%
≤90d 106 +4.0% -5.9% 59% 55% +2.7%
all 127 -2.8% -12.1% 57% 50% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 50% -4.6%
10% -20.5% 44% -13.7%
15% -28.2% 33% -22.1%
20% -35.2% 22% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

409d coverage
Net worth$1,210
Realized+$260
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses73 / 54
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions17
Markets (closed)127 / 146
History coverage409d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $207 $206 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $186 $184 −$2 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 84¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $82 +$8 (+10%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 78¢ $54 $63 +$9 (+17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $47 +$15 (+47%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $51 $47 −$5 (-9%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $63 $46 −$18 (-28%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $40 $44 +$5 (+12%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $48 $38 −$9 (-19%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $28 −$12 (-31%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $36 +$67 +189%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $24 +$26 +109%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $343 +$247 +72%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $691 +$224 +32%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 21 $28 −$3 -11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $84 −$64 -76%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$7 +33%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$9 +85%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $116 +$3 +3%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $54 +$6 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$25 +61%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $16 +$3 +21%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $11 +$9 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $16 +$6 +39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $58 +$29 +50%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $12 +$3 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $37 +$18 +50%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $14 +$8 +53%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $93 −$9 -10%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$5 -87%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$12 -227%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $43 −$15 -34%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $19 +$4 +20%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $11 +$4 +42%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 +$11 +64%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4 +$5 +123%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $58 −$5 -9%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 −$7 -61%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$4 +36%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$13 +140%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$2 +23%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$4 -87%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$20 +388%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +12%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 +$12 +45%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $188 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $78 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $128 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $209 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $43 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 95¢ $77 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,209.77 · official $1,209.53 (match) · 479 history records