Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80d9…b694 sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,910 (-11%) realized −$1,910 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%19W / 31L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Fees−$319est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$599
7 days−$2,748
14 days−$2,249
30 days−$2,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$450
other 16% −$1,119
world 3% −$455
crypto 1% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -17.7% -25.6% 36% 29% -26.1%
≤30d 50 -13.1% -21.4% 38% 30% -22.0%
≤90d 50 -13.1% -21.4% 38% 30% -22.0%
all 50 -13.1% -21.4% 38% 30% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 30% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 30% -29.5%
15% -35.8% 30% -36.3%
20% -42.1% 26% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$206 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,910
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses19 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$319
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage8d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $277 −$4 -2%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $199 −$195 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $405 −$400 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $308 +$262 +85%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$300 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $1,029 −$58 -6%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $708 +$273 +39%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $514 −$514 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $835 −$9 -1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $400 −$276 -69%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $264 −$157 -60%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $821 −$267 -32%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $2,140 −$268 -12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $99 +$84 +85%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $139 −$31 -22%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $399 +$8 +2%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $215 +$285 +133%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $211 −$42 -20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $219 −$12 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $205 +$21 +10%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $399 +$301 +75%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $222 −$222 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $557 −$327 -59%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 15 $209 −$209 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $409 −$409 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $495 −$495 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $389 −$389 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $201 +$329 +163%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $195 +$205 +105%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $215 −$42 -20%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $187 −$19 -10%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $400 +$450 +113%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$292 +146%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $205 +$96 +47%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $135 −$8 -6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $501 +$348 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $310 +$190 +61%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $270 +$230 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $199 −$67 -34%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $371 +$329 +89%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $279 +$221 +79%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $225 +$16 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $192 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 47¢ $273 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $199 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $405 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $277 21h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $176 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $39 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $1 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $92 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $45 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $0 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $4 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $1 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $2 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 63¢ $955 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $801 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $170 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 54¢ $6 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $982 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 72¢ $81 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 72¢ $3 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 72¢ $13 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 72¢ $189 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 72¢ $189 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 72¢ $155 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 72¢ $80 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 0¢ $0 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 0¢ $1 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 0¢ $0 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 2¢ $98 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 300 history records