Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80da…bbb4 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% $0
other 12% $0
politics 6% −$7
sports 5% +$7
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 21% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 21% 0% -9.6%
all 33 -2.7% -12.0% 42% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 3% -18.6%
15% -28.1% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage491d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $48 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $105 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $48 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $56 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 19 $11 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump say 'Mexico' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $14 $0 -1%
Jets vs. Islanders Mar 04 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Trump say 'AI' or 'artificial intelligence' during the 2025 State Mar 04 $15 $0 -2%
Drexel vs. Delaware Mar 03 $7 +$8 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $47 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $9 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $38 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $48 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $53 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $53 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $11 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $36 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.25 · official $47.25 (match) · 98 history records