Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:51:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x80dd…3c83 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$412 (-45%) realized −$200 · open −$212
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$488now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$412
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$200 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$488
Realized−$200
Unrealized−$212
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 20¢ $500 $488 −$12 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 20¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 26¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $205 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $512 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 26¢ $204 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.10 · official $488.10 (match) · 3 history records