Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80dd…0c24 crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$401 (-5%) realized −$401 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days−$392
30 days−$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$7
other 34% −$4
sports 5% −$391
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -33.2% -39.6% 38% 12% -8.8%
≤30d 23 -15.9% -23.9% 52% 4% -13.8%
≤90d 23 -15.9% -23.9% 52% 4% -13.8%
all 23 -15.9% -23.9% 52% 4% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 4% -13.8%
10% -31.2% 4% -22.0%
15% -37.8% 0% -29.5%
20% -43.9% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$510) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$41 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$401
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage21d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $470 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $490 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $465 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $299 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $360 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $460 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $486 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $407 −$405 -99%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $530 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $500 +$1 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $511 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $520 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $510 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $172 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up $0 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down $0 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $470 34h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $489 34h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $490 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $465 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $299 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $299 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $360 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $460 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $485 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $486 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 81¢ $407 11d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $529 11d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $530 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $534 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $535 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $482 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $483 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $511 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $200 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $320 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $510 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $400 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $103 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $172 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records