Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
80 0x80e1…47a8 weather 1474 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$315 (+2%) realized +$354 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate76%1110W / 358L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$420
7 days+$577
14 days+$284
30 days+$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$188
other 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +12.6% +1.8% 81% 35% +2.4%
≤30d 224 +9.3% -1.1% 80% 35% -5.1%
≤90d 832 -1.0% -10.4% 69% 51% -7.8%
all 1468 -1.0% -10.4% 76% 48% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 48% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 28% -17.1%
15% -26.8% 20% -25.1%
20% -34.0% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$354
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1110 / 358
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1468 / 1474
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? No 72¢ 65¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 22? No 92¢ 72¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 22? No 96¢ 94¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? No 97¢ 68¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 22? No 96¢ 92¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 22? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 22 $102 +$129 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$55 +191%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? Jun 21 $20 −$4 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $202 +$47 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $102 +$51 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 −$8 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $90 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $101 +$19 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 +$14 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $63 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $125 +$14 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 20 $111 −$9 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $95 +$14 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $102 +$57 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $89 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $85 +$188 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $202 +$45 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $101 +$18 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 19 $75 +$27 +35%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 19 $5 +$4 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $62 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +39%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 18 $30 −$22 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $101 +$27 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$30 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$3 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $22 13m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $10 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? SELL No 69¢ $16 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 85¢ $20 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 36¢ $11 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 32¢ $14 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 30¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $40 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 90¢ $92 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $96 16h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $120 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $100 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 43¢ $102 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $90 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $202 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 65¢ $102 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $40 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $100 24h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 83¢ $101 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? SELL No 71¢ $102 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 61¢ $18 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 78¢ $92 36h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? SELL No 44¢ $18 36h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 50¢ $17 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.25 · official $237.25 (match) · 3500 history records