Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x80e1…3830
other · 94 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$494 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$250 · open −$758
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,609
Realized+$250
Unrealized−$758
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses51 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions11
Markets (closed)83 / 94
History coverage74d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 11 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$551
7 days+$227
14 days+$227
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 46¢ $580 $447 −$133 (-23%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $216 $284 +$68 (+31%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 80¢ $300 $284 −$16 (-5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 55¢ 55¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $160 $193 +$33 (+21%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $850 $0 −$850 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,000 +$13 +1%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $154 +$916 +596%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $477 +$502 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $401 +$20 +5%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $311 −$302 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $230 −$228 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $201 −$9 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $537 −$537 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $281 +$644 +229%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $500 +$4 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $59 +$2 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $301 +$16 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $500 +$8 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $500 +$7 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $600 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,003 +$63 +6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $321 +$19 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $327 −$317 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $377 −$292 -77%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $215 −$215 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $300 +$12 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $686 +$280 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $501 +$21 +4%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 11 $83 −$81 -97%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 11 $104 −$99 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 11 $174 −$141 -81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 22 $25 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $35 +$4 +11%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 16 $37 +$6 +17%
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade? May 16 $37 −$17 -46%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 15 $140 +$32 +23%
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? May 15 $14 $0 +4%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $30 −$19 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 14 $9 +$3 +38%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 14 $5 −$3 -55%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 14 $5 −$3 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$1,390
sports 21% +$1,175
tech 15% −$57
weather 13% +$95
world 3% −$252
politics 2% −$82
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $57 19m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 55¢ $203 26m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $10 56m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $301 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $164 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $266 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $587 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $1,013 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,070 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $50 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 3h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $855 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $205 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $104 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $200 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $300 20h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $50 20h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 21h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $100 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $230 22h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $311 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $477 22h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $105 25h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $482 25h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $505 25h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $444 26h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $100 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 12% -7.6%
≤30d 46 +2.5% -7.3% 67% 26% -7.3%
≤90d 83 -4.5% -13.6% 61% 29% -7.6%
all 83 -4.5% -13.6% 61% 29% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 29% -7.6%
10% -21.9% 18% -16.4%
15% -29.4% 13% -24.5%
20% -36.3% 8% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,608.84 · official $1,609.36 (match) · 268 history records