Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:29:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80e3…9234 crypto 682 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (221 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$783 (-10%) realized −$783 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate43%325W / 423L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day220.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$333
7 days−$567
14 days−$545
30 days−$545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$362
sports 10% −$60
other 6% +$71
world 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (221 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 614 -20.9% -28.5% 37% 30% -18.2%
≤30d 748 -18.8% -26.5% 43% 27% -16.2%
≤90d 748 -18.8% -26.5% 43% 27% -16.2%
all 748 -18.8% -26.5% 43% 27% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover220.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 27% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 20% -24.2%
15% -40.0% 16% -31.5%
20% -45.9% 12% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$783
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses325 / 423
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)748 / 682
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day220.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 748 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 336 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$8 -491%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Texas Rangers 100¢ $0 44m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Texas Rangers 85¢ $88 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 90¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 93¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 93¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 81¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 85¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 81¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 73¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 73¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 79¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 79¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 79¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 79¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 79¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 79¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 67¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 69¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 64¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 63¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 64¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 61¢ $3 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 27¢ $10 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.16 · official $30.16 · 3500 history records