Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80e5…2418 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$658 (-1%) realized −$655 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate64%62W / 35L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$941per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$6,291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$356
14 days−$1,147
30 days−$1,449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$1,439
politics 25% +$242
world 13% +$52
economics 12% +$65
crypto 6% +$66
tech 3% −$265
finance 3% +$121
sports 1% +$40
culture 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -22.4% -29.8% 25% 0% -24.6%
≤30d 23 -9.6% -18.3% 35% 9% -21.3%
≤90d 43 -13.3% -21.5% 51% 14% -12.2%
all 97 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 11% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 11% -10.6%
10% -25.1% 4% -19.1%
15% -32.4% 3% -27.0%
20% -39.0% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,295) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$96 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$6,291
Realized−$655
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses62 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)97 / 109
History coverage218d
Avg bet$941
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 70¢ $1,853 $1,727 −$126 (-7%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,287 $1,312 +$26 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $906 $903 −$3 (-0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 48¢ $660 $726 +$66 (+10%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 63¢ $449 $499 +$50 (+11%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No 95¢ 97¢ $420 $430 +$10 (+2%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 96¢ 96¢ $383 $383 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $164 $163 −$1 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No 80¢ 78¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 60¢ 95¢ $19 $31 +$11 (+60%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? Yes 89¢ 19¢ $43 $9 −$34 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $18 −$13 -72%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $286 −$22 -8%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 23 $215 +$1 +0%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $70 +$7 +9%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $486 −$43 -9%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 22 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 18 $945 −$86 -9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $533 +$37 +7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 17 $136 −$14 -10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 16 $53 −$1 -2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,393 +$3 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 15 $737 −$729 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $31 +$21 +69%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 06 $3,400 −$265 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $720 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $116 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $195 −$15 -8%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $90 −$46 -51%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 28 $372 −$48 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $270 +$6 +2%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 27 $56 +$44 +80%
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? May 26 $1,000 +$26 +3%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $50 by December 31, 2026? May 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 17 $1,000 +$190 +19%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $132 −$34 -26%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $300 +$41 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 09 $419 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 08 $400 +$6 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 08 $300 +$4 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 08 $600 +$7 +1%
Trump out as President by June 30? Apr 25 $746 +$7 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $873 −$67 -8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 09 $211 +$3 +2%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $781 +$9 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 09 $4,947 +$210 +4%
HYPE Up or Down on April 7? Apr 07 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? Apr 05 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in March? Apr 03 $200 +$11 +6%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in March? Apr 03 $1,383 +$281 +20%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Mar 31 $2,366 +$258 +11%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? Mar 27 $979 +$6 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 22 $550 +$34 +6%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1? Mar 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 14 $1,393 +$92 +7%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 14 $139 −$107 -77%
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Mar 12 $1,788 +$39 +2%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 06 $1,962 +$133 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $383 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $937 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $166 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? BUY No 98¢ $273 1h
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL No 21¢ $264 2d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 92¢ $172 2d
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 88¢ $219 2d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 12¢ $77 2d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 75¢ $128 2d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 75¢ $443 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,290.55 · official $6,290.17 (match) · 779 history records