Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80e9…f25d crypto 846 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,265 (-1%) realized −$1,265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate87%733W / 113L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$290
14 days+$359
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,123
world 0% −$773
other 0% −$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +8.6% -1.7% 95% 33% -5.6%
≤30d 214 -11.1% -19.5% 78% 21% -9.7%
≤90d 634 -3.3% -12.5% 86% 19% -10.3%
all 846 -2.4% -11.7% 87% 20% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 20% -10.3%
10% -20.1% 8% -18.9%
15% -27.9% 3% -26.7%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$143 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses733 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)846 / 846
History coverage130d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 846 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$31 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $182 +$32 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $171 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $161 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $151 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $140 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$17 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $182 +$35 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $161 +$20 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $191 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $181 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $142 +$36 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $392 −$186 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $302 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $281 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $281 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $251 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $203 +$46 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $208 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $202 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $401 +$11 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $201 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $201 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $202 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $202 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $202 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $202 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $182 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $171 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $161 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $151 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $140 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $202 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $182 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $161 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $201 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $191 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $181 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1952 history records