Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
80 0x80eb…d063 crypto 2128 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-4%) realized −$77 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%918W / 888L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$33
14 days+$44
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$230
world 1% +$1
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 +19.0% +7.6% 64% 63% +5.2%
≤30d 1560 +13.5% +2.7% 52% 51% +3.9%
≤90d 1792 +10.4% -0.2% 51% 50% +0.9%
all 1806 +10.2% -0.3% 51% 50% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 50% +0.5%
10% -9.8% 49% -9.1%
15% -18.5% 48% -17.9%
20% -26.5% 47% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses918 / 888
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1806 / 2128
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1806 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 18¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 82¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$85 in January? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $95 on the final trading day of January 2 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.45 (match) · 3500 history records