Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80ed…ce26 sports 446 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$523 (+0%) realized +$596 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%253W / 262L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$310est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$45
world 34% −$3,410
other 12% +$2,300
politics 10% +$573
crypto 2% +$352
finance 1% −$26
tech 0% −$11
economics 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -62.0% -65.6% 24% 17% -23.7%
≤30d 166 -19.2% -26.9% 34% 27% -16.3%
≤90d 408 +10.6% +0.0% 48% 34% -11.9%
all 515 +13.8% +3.0% 49% 34% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.0% 34% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.9% 29% -19.0%
15% -15.9% 23% -26.8%
20% -24.1% 17% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$43 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$596
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses253 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$310
Open positions5
Markets (closed)515 / 446
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$376
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gwendolyn Beck be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $24 $7 −$17 (-69%)
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-31%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $54 $1 −$53 (-98%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Leavitt say "American people" 5+ times during the next White Hous Jun 21 $47 −$47 -100%
UFC 325: Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Featherweight, Early Jun 21 $79 −$79 -100%
Will J.D. Vance say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times in O Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jun 21 $14 −$19 -133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Leavitt say "President" 65+ times during the next White House Pre Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the Board of Peace Charter Announcemen Jun 21 $15 −$19 -134%
Will Trump attend UFC 325? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 324: Krylov vs. Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Punahele Soriano (Welterweight, Pr Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19? Jun 21 $223 −$214 -96%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the announcers say "What a Catch" during the National College Foo Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will J.D. Vance say "Egg" or "Gasoline" 2+ times in Ohio on Thursday? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Trump say "Minnesota" this week? (January 18) Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in January? Jun 21 $21 −$17 -84%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Nora Cornolle (Women's Bantamwei Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will J.D. Vance say "Foreign" in Ohio on Thursday? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New Year’s Eve ball not drop? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Jun 21 $8 +$6 +78%
Will Leavitt say "Prize" or "Medal" during the next White House Press Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 325: Sangwook Kim vs. Dom Mar Fan (Lightweight, Early Prelims) Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Champion o Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC 325: Yizha vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Early Prelims) Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the announcers say "No Good" during the National College Football Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Epstein Data Set 12 be released by February 15, 2026? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during Iowa speech? Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Regime" during the next White House Press Briefing? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Jun 21 $93 −$93 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz (Bantamweight, Prelims Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will J.D. Vance say "Refund" in Ohio on Thursday? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? Jun 21 $30 −$4 -14%
Will Leavitt say "Fake news" during the next White House Press Briefin Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will J.D. Vance say "Far-Left" during the March for Life? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 13-19? Jun 21 $145 −$116 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 37¢ $38 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $230 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 100¢ $354 1h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma SELL Christian Rodriguez 100¢ $100 2h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 68¢ $68 2h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw SELL Murtazali Magomedov 80¢ $80 2h
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $335 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ $78 2h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 56¢ $28 2h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 56¢ $28 2h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh SELL Bia Mesquita 100¢ $200 3h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 62¢ $16 4h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 62¢ $33 4h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 62¢ $75 4h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Mitch Raposo 99¢ $297 4h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 40¢ $80 4h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre SELL Michael Aswell 26¢ $2 4h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 74¢ $265 5h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 78¢ $39 5h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 78¢ $4 5h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 78¢ $35 5h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 100¢ $200 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $29 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $854 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 9h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 64¢ $62 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.15 · official $18.15 (match) · 3500 history records