Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80ed…887e crypto 451 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+1%) realized +$57 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%430W / 10L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$6
14 days+$19
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$34
politics 5% +$12
other 2% +$2
finance 1% +$2
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +0.4% -9.1% 97% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 440 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 440 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -8.8%
all 440 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 0% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses430 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)440 / 451
History coverage20d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 440 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 26? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 4h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.83 · official $210.99 (match) · 889 history records