Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80ed…6a3d sports 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$270 (-3%) realized −$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%129W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$43
14 days+$46
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$377
crypto 4% +$50
other 3% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +26.8% +14.7% 62% 54% -3.3%
≤30d 37 +18.8% +7.5% 62% 49% -7.9%
≤90d 42 +18.8% +7.5% 62% 48% -20.9%
all 226 +15.6% +4.6% 57% 46% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 46% -12.4%
10% -5.4% 38% -20.8%
15% -14.6% 34% -28.5%
20% -22.9% 31% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses129 / 97
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)226 / 226
History coverage222d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 226 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $58 +$29 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$13 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -90%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 +$15 +27%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$14 +267%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $41 −$1 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$40 +39%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +246%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +56%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $31 −$31 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $71 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +9%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $9 +$11 +128%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $5 +$8 +156%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $40 −$19 -48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $11 +$2 +19%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $41 +$39 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 18 $10 +$13 +128%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $50 −$16 -33%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $208 −$207 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 27 $99 +$4 +4%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Mar 08 $1 $0 -35%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Mar 08 $2 +$1 +62%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jan 29 $345 −$345 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 28 $5 +$4 +81%
Clippers vs. Jazz Jan 28 $93 +$7 +8%
Bucks vs. 76ers Jan 28 $299 +$14 +5%
Kings vs. Knicks Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 729 history records