Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80f2…b0be sports 355 markets active 1h ago coverage 652d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%30W / 324L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$36
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$8
politics 29% −$15
other 27% −$26
economics 5% −$2
tech 2% −$3
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% −$6
world 1% −$9
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 84 -1.1% -10.5% 5% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 90 -1.1% -10.5% 4% 0% -10.3%
all 354 -0.6% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

652d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses30 / 324
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)354 / 355
History coverage652d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $111 −$2 -2%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 15 $41 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $56 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $344 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $223 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $65 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $175 −$3 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $58 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $141 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $55 −$5 -9%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $60 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 10 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $53 $0 -1%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $202 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $11 $0 -5%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $52 −$4 -7%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $29 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $186 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 02 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $50 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $52 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 5h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 6h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 13h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $55 13h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 20h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $55 21h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 26h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $44 26h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $7 31h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $39 31h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $14 32h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $14 36h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $45 36h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 42h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $41 43h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $41 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $55 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.06 · official $49.06 (match) · 1339 history records