Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x80f3…0f89 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized +$52 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$37
14 days−$62
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$172
sports 23% −$29
other 7% −$91
finance 2% −$13
crypto 1% −$8
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -46.8% -51.9% 50% 0% -22.7%
≤30d 30 -4.2% -13.4% 50% 37% -8.3%
≤90d 34 -9.6% -18.2% 47% 32% -9.1%
all 34 -9.6% -18.2% 47% 32% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 32% -9.1%
10% -26.0% 29% -17.8%
15% -33.2% 29% -25.7%
20% -39.7% 21% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$37 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage34d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Darja Vidmanova 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Kyrian Jacquet 57¢ 56¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $203 +$13 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $101 +$71 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $101 +$46 +46%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $101 +$71 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $101 +$42 +42%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $11 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $51 +$42 +83%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $51 +$37 +73%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 28 $50 −$8 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $152 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $4,085 +$143 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Cristina Bucsa May 25 $61 +$39 +63%
Basket Zaragoza vs. CB Murcia May 24 $94 +$39 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $114 +$23 +20%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 24 $24 +$26 +109%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $95 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 23? May 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22? May 22 $23 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $70 −$9 -13%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $58 +$42 +74%
Pallacanestro Trieste vs. Pallacanestro Brescia May 21 $100 −$100 -99%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? May 21 $90 −$4 -4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 20 $122 +$2 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 20? May 20 $75 −$4 -6%
Reyer Venezia vs. Derthona Basket May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $196 +$13 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle BUY Kyrian Jacquet 57¢ $51 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Darja Vidmanova 48¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $51 35h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Carole Monnet 91¢ $122 2d
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Carole Monnet 31¢ $29 2d
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 44¢ $102 2d
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Carole Monnet 27¢ $66 2d
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 40¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 28¢ $26 13d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $101 15d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $101 15d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 68¢ $101 15d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $101 16d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $101 16d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $101 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $11 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Sorana Cirstea 35¢ $102 17d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $51 17d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 58¢ $51 17d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $51 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $42 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $156 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $180 24d
Roland Garros WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Cristina Bucsa SELL Susan Bandecchi 50¢ $90 25d
Roland Garros WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Cristina Bucsa SELL Susan Bandecchi 50¢ $10 25d
Roland Garros WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Cristina Bucsa BUY Susan Bandecchi 30¢ $61 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $152 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $623 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $383 25d
Basket Zaragoza vs. CB Murcia BUY CB Murcia 70¢ $41 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.60 · official $98.60 (match) · 107 history records