Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
80 0x80f3…1c41 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%46W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$11
crypto 10% +$1
sports 5% −$21
tech 1% $0
politics 1% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 64 -1.8% -11.1% 72% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses46 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage587d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? Feb 02 $42 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 04 $54 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $11 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 04 $31 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $5,548 −$6 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +3%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3750 by February 28 2025? Mar 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 24-31? Feb 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next German electi Jan 25 $28 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Jan 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Dec 26 $16 −$5 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 31d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 61d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $40 62d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 122d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 123d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $51 123d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 151d
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $42 151d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $16 181d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 181d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $36 182d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 211d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $54 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $11 243d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $19 243d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $33 243d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $24 273d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 99¢ $31 273d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $8 303d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 303d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $35 304d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $6 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $22 333d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $39 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.77 · official $65.77 (match) · 137 history records