Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
80 0x80f4…131d other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$487 (+5%) realized +$812 · open −$325
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,351per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$3,422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$518
tech 40% −$81
crypto 4% +$487
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +40.8% +27.4% 67% 67% +5.1%
≤30d 3 +40.8% +27.4% 67% 67% +5.1%
≤90d 4 +30.1% +17.7% 50% 50% -6.1%
all 4 +30.1% +17.7% 50% 50% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 50% -6.1%
10% +6.4% 50% -15.1%
15% -3.9% 50% -23.3%
20% -13.3% 50% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$498 vs −$391 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$3,422
Realized+$812
Unrealized−$325
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage35d
Avg bet$1,351
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $1,496 $2,044 +$548 (+37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 11¢ $1,346 $858 −$488 (-36%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 70¢ 40¢ $904 $520 −$385 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $400 +$487 +122%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $823 −$702 -85%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $591 +$509 +86%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 26 $3,823 −$81 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 2m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 71¢ $895 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $264 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 7¢ $121 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $823 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $591 26h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 34d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,372 34d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,533 34d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $2,908 34d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $308 35d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 23¢ $308 35d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 25¢ $70 35d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 25¢ $418 35d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 25¢ $14 35d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 25¢ $24 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,421.59 · official $3,421.59 (match) · 68 history records