Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x80f5…daa2 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,752 (+15%) realized +$2,213 · open +$539
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%19W / 34L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$178est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$309
7 days+$1,080
14 days+$1,987
30 days+$2,305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$3,731
other 44% −$264
world 3% −$496
crypto 3% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +2.0% -7.7% 37% 30% +0.2%
≤30d 45 +7.5% -2.7% 33% 29% +4.8%
≤90d 53 +3.4% -6.4% 36% 30% +4.7%
all 53 +3.4% -6.4% 36% 30% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 30% +4.7%
10% -15.4% 28% -5.3%
15% -23.5% 25% -14.5%
20% -31.0% 25% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$442 vs −$180 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$1,189
Realized+$2,213
Unrealized+$539
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage39d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 40¢ 74¢ $651 $1,189 +$539 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $1,047 −$18 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $458 −$212 -46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$620 +206%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $401 −$100 -25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $635 +$142 +22%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $653 −$229 -35%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $1,913 +$95 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $244 +$147 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $226 +$19 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $267 −$42 -16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $410 −$381 -93%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $510 −$348 -68%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $416 −$410 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $243 +$170 +70%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $174 −$170 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $410 −$400 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $184 +$402 +219%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $619 −$496 -80%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $611 +$889 +146%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $860 −$6 -1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $155 −$151 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $167 −$163 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 +$727 +237%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $715 +$1,616 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $611 +$1,010 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $508 −$500 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $154 −$150 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $914 +$999 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $142 −$140 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $440 −$433 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$90 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $242 −$238 -98%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $103 −$4 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $103 −$7 -6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $250 −$245 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $205 +$1,044 +509%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $204 +$421 +206%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 06 $404 −$13 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $91 −$90 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 20 $10 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 19 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $15 +$3 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $255 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 24¢ $245 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $458 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $407 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 8¢ $31 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 85¢ $95 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 87¢ $100 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 81¢ $932 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 78¢ $916 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 32¢ $301 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $301 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $401 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $243 24h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $240 24h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 75¢ $181 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Vitality 25¢ $184 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 62¢ $471 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $459 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $353 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 37¢ $257 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $235 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 68¢ $340 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 54¢ $172 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 29¢ $151 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $475 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 53¢ $463 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $306 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 70¢ $337 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $373 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $377 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,189.36 · official $1,205.54 · 124 history records