Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80f6…d986 sports 172 markets active 8h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-5%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%94W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$40
14 days−$12
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$26
other 22% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -16.6% -24.6% 44% 44% -26.1%
≤30d 113 +3.1% -6.7% 61% 60% -11.3%
≤90d 170 +0.1% -9.4% 55% 54% -15.0%
all 170 +0.1% -9.4% 55% 54% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 54% -15.0%
10% -18.1% 53% -23.1%
15% -26.0% 48% -30.5%
20% -33.3% 35% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses94 / 76
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 172
History coverage42d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$3 -59%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 +$4 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$3 +62%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$2 -45%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -32%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$2 +61%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +41%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $5 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $5 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $2 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $0 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 15h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 34h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 39h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $5 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $5 42h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 19¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 1¢ $0 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 70¢ $5 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 70¢ $5 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $5 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $5 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $2 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $5 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records