Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
80 0x80f7…939c crypto 1276 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,528 (-11%) realized −$5,529 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%732W / 570L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 111d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,341
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 384 +79.8% +62.7% 23% 23% -81.4%
≤30d 597 +78.4% +61.4% 49% 49% -25.9%
≤90d 656 +77.2% +60.3% 54% 53% -15.2%
all 1302 +47.6% +33.5% 56% 54% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.5% 54% -13.6%
10% +20.7% 52% -21.9%
15% +9.1% 51% -29.5%
20% -1.6% 50% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +77% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$31 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$5,529
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses732 / 570
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1302 / 1276
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 55¢ 56¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$8 +5939%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$29 +7884%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$15 +13566%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$7 +3718%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$8 +3897%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$4 +1893%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +4880%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$52 +24512%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$4 +5005%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$13 +4982%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$26 +23279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$10 +4867%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$18 +53016%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$5 +3665%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$4 +4911%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$13 +16851%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$5 +4908%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$12 +12591%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$10 +13209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +4880%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$29 +32494%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$9 +6310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$4 +6395%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$24 +7555%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$4 +7914%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$15 +7572%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$11 +44886%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$34 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$63 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$21 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$16 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$21 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$19 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$19 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $13 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.88 · official $87.43 · 3500 history records