Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
80 0x80fa…e69d world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate44%25W / 32L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$3
other 24% +$12
sports 4% +$8
politics 4% −$5
tech 2% +$6
weather 2% +$2
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 26 -1.7% -11.0% 35% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -1.6% -10.9% 32% 0% -9.6%
all 57 +8.5% -1.8% 44% 9% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 9% -8.8%
10% -11.2% 4% -17.5%
15% -19.8% 4% -25.5%
20% -27.6% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses25 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage485d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $28 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $106 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $34 −$4 -12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $109 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $72 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $1 $0 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $35 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $53 +$4 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $293 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $36 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $303 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $427 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Jun 24 $4 −$3 -80%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $190 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +22%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 08 $2 +$10 +469%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 May 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will egg prices be less than $5.00 in March? Apr 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 04 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Shedeur Sanders be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 02 $28 −$2 -5%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $30 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Trump post less than 80 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $28 +$1 +3%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $28 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? Mar 15 $28 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15? Mar 07 $23 +$5 +21%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 38-42m viewers? Mar 04 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 5? Mar 04 $21 +$2 +12%
Will Ajax vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Mar 04 $21 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $10 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $20 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $23 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $28 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $31 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $30 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $30 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $34 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.36 · official $34.36 (match) · 201 history records