Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
80 0x80fa…f3d2 other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%30W / 55L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$12
world 28% +$33
other 27% −$10
politics 7% −$4
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 57% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 27 +73.3% +56.8% 37% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 36 +55.1% +40.4% 39% 3% -9.3%
all 85 +20.3% +8.8% 35% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 1% -9.3%
10% -1.6% 1% -18.0%
15% -11.1% 1% -25.9%
20% -19.8% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses30 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage466d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $328 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $70 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $165 −$2 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $164 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $125 +$10 +8%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $23 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $159 −$3 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $18 −$8 -44%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $135 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $198 +$7 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $165 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $899 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $504 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $649 +$8 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $165 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $166 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $186 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $176 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $521 +$9 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 +10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $169 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $142 +$3 +2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $103 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $50 +$3 +7%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,883 +$4 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $1,027 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $1,288 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $936 −$4 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $937 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $936 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $930 +$7 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Dec 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 27 $10 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 27 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $114 33m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $113 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $21 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $44 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $109 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $72 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $180 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $78 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $84 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $76 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $89 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $20 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $52 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $80 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $125 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $105 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $105 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 335 history records