Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80fd…85f1 world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% +$17
other 8% −$1
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.8% -10.3% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 25 +18.7% +7.4% 48% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 28 +16.7% +5.6% 54% 11% -8.9%
all 29 +12.7% +2.0% 52% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 10% -9.3%
10% -7.8% 7% -18.0%
15% -16.7% 3% -25.9%
20% -24.9% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage486d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $55 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $102 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $11 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $117 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $89 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $62 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $143 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $53 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $27 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $83 +$3 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $32 +$8 +25%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $65 +$3 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $255 +$2 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $3 $0 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 15 $255 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $294 +$1 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $277 $0 +0%
Louisiana vs. Troy Mar 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $55 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $55 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $51 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $51 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $46 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $46 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $18 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $18 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $36 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $36 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $38 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 42h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 42h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 42h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $0.98 (match) · 151 history records