Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80ff…439e other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$966 (+0%) realized +$897 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%26W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$1,676per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,039now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$16
14 days−$188
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$134
politics 36% −$123
sports 18% +$914
culture 4% −$12
economics 2% −$2
world 2% −$8
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 50 -3.4% -12.6% 10% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 123 -8.0% -16.7% 9% 6% -9.4%
all 161 -0.4% -9.9% 16% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 12% -9.2%
10% -18.5% 12% -17.9%
15% -26.4% 10% -25.8%
20% -33.6% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,067) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$12 · ×7.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$1,039
Realized+$897
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses26 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)161 / 164
History coverage120d
Avg bet$1,676
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $699 $700 +$1 (+0%)
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $252 $251 −$0 (-0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 62¢ $83 $88 +$5 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,515 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $153 $0 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,847 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,157 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $205 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $255 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $287 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,399 −$5 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $269 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,732 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $3,282 −$5 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $286 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $308 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $307 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $225 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $286 $0 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $73 −$73 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 05 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $244 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $367 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $4,352 −$5 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $152 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $152 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $3,006 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? May 28 $1,242 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $86 +$51 +60%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $5,383 −$6 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $47 +$61 +129%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $4,838 −$6 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,480 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,393 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $1,686 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $4,880 −$6 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,407 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $252 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 23h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 25h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $205 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $205 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $204 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $205 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $204 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $203 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $203 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $204 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $204 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $204 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $204 4d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $204 4d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $205 5d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $153 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $255 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $255 6d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $286 6d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $287 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $269 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $169 7d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 8d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $245 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $262 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,039.16 · official $1,039.16 (match) · 543 history records