Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:33:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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81 0x8100…53a9 crypto 527 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$959 (+11%) realized +$968 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%274W / 252L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$731
7 days+$1,390
14 days+$1,390
30 days+$1,390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$1,195
crypto 41% −$112
other 14% +$138
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +22.2% +10.6% 65% 62% +16.4%
≤30d 26 +22.2% +10.6% 65% 62% +16.4%
≤90d 38 +20.5% +9.0% 61% 55% +14.7%
all 526 -1.1% -10.5% 52% 43% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 43% +3.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 35% -6.3%
15% -26.9% 29% -15.4%
20% -34.1% 26% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$968
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses274 / 252
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)526 / 527
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $160 $151 −$9 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $183 +$223 +122%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$78 +77%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $153 +$213 +139%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $1 +$1 +118%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $338 −$21 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $155 −$153 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $344 +$321 +93%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $76 −$74 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $290 +$90 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$9 +9%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $79 +$55 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$46 +46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $198 +$185 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $219 +$284 +130%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $109 +$110 +101%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $4 −$3 -95%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $253 −$250 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $236 +$129 +55%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $584 +$347 +60%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $203 +$231 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $226 +$127 +56%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 04 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs BIG Academy (BO3) - United21 Playof May 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 04 $25 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $57 +$10 +17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $9 +$23 +250%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $6 +$10 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 29 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 28 $6 +$11 +173%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 24 $6 −$6 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 24 $4 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 24 $9 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 24 $9 −$2 -17%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 24 $9 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 23 $15 −$7 -47%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 23 $12 −$4 -35%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 23 $15 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 23 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 23 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 23 $15 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 23 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $407 35m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $183 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 85¢ $180 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 47¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $365 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $162 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $153 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $317 5h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY ex-RUBY 45¢ $1 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $338 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $203 25h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $40 27h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $76 27h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $380 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $290 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 41h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $134 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $147 47h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $79 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $383 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $198 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.82 · official $150.82 (match) · 3500 history records