Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x8105…6d40
crypto · 1822 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
−$138 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$136 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1237 / 585
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1822 / 1822
History coverage56d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1822 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$137
world 0% +$1
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -34.7% -41.0% 39% 39% -26.3%
≤30d 740 -4.0% -13.1% 65% 64% -10.6%
≤90d 1822 -3.1% -12.3% 68% 68% -12.3%
all 1822 -3.1% -12.3% 68% 68% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 68% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 64% -20.7%
15% -28.4% 38% -28.3%
20% -35.4% 15% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 3500 history records